Saturday, February 9, 2019, ABUJA – Nigeria holds its general elections in February and March 2019. Voters will get a chance to elect their leaders including the president, state governors and federal and state lawmakers. However, a number of multi-sectoral factors would impact the ability of citizens to vote as well as the electoral agency INEC to fulfil its mandate in certain areas of the country especially the Northeast.

Since 2009, Nigeria has been running a counter-insurgency campaign in its northeast. The conflict peaked between the last quarter of 2014 and early 2015 (an electioneering campaign season) as the insurgents overran towns and military bases across Borno, Adamawa and Yobe States.  The result of this is a humanitarian crisis with millions of displaced persons, thousands killed and critical infrastructure destroyed.

As a result of this, the Nigerian government postponed the national election in 2015 to allow the military to conduct an offensive to recapture towns and provide an environment of relative calm.  Despite successes claimed by the Nigerian military and the Multinational Joint task force (MNJTF) – a regional military task force made of personnel from Nigeria, Niger, Benin and Cameroon – Boko Haram attempted to disrupt elections in some places by attacking voting centers.

New threats

In 2019, the complexity around the insurgency has increased since the emergence of a splinter group known as the Islamic State in West Africa, and a resurgence of attacks on garrison towns and military bases after a period of relative calm. 

The United States African Command (AFRICOM) commander General Waldhauser informed the US Senate Armed Services Committee, “West African ISIS now has 3,000 to 4,000 members and has captured large sections of Nigerian territory”.

Boko Haram militants have displaced over 320,000 persons in four months, according to the United Nations refugee agency(UNHCR) January report. [1] These attacks by Boko Haram and ISWA militants occurred mostly in Lake Chad Communities.  

In Yobe, the attacks are centered in areas close to Borno and the Niger (a neighbouring country) border. Adamawa has suffered recent Boko Haram attacks in Michika and Madagali [2]. These wave of attacks and the resulting displacement of persons would affect overall participation in the federal and local elections. 

Impact on conduct of the elections

INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner in Borno state, Muhammed Ibrahim, in an address to civil society organisations, political parties and journalists, revealed the electoral body’s decision to allow Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) numbering 409,813 to vote in camps.  

IDPs from eight local government areas;Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Dikwa, Gamboru-Ngala, Kukawa and Mobbar and Kalabalge will  cast their votes in camps in and outside Maiduguri. [3]  However, the inability of thousands of refugees who fled to neighbouring Chad and Cameroon after recent violence in the Lake Chad area to vote and the safety of IDP camps are major concerns to watch.

In Yobe, INEC has identified 24 voting areas where elections would be conducted in alternative voting centres.  This followed reports by security agencies which indicated that several voting areas in Gujba, Gulani and Gaidam local government areas of the state were unsafe for elections. [4] 

In Adamawa, INEC is expected to conduct elections in areas recently attacked by Boko Haram, including Madagali LGA, with more than 81,000 registered voters. [5]

The safety of electoral officials, voters and materials will determine INEC’s final decision on whether it would conduct elections in these high risk areas. Already, the Nigerian Army would be deploying ninety-five per cent of its troops for security duties during the forthcoming general elections with 40 per cent in the North East. [6]

Endnotes:

• [1] Boko Haram displaced over 320, 000 persons in four months, says UNHCR http://thenationonlineng.net/boko-haram-displaced-320-000-persons-four-months-says-unhcr/
• [2] BokoHaram On Rampage In Michika, Madagali, Adamawa Statehttps://www.sunnewsonline.com/breaking-boko-haram-on-rampage-in-michika-madagali-adamawa-state/
• [3] 410,000 IDPs to vote in Borno camps – INEC https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/310777-410000-idps-to-vote-in-borno-camps-inec.html
• [4] INEC provides alternative voting center https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/boko-haram-inec-to-provides-alternative-voting-centres-in-yobe.html
• [5] INEC vows to conduct elections in Madagali http://thenationonlineng.net/adamawa-attack-inec-vows-to-conduct-elections-in-madagali/
• [6]  95 Percent Of Troops To Be Deployed For Election Duties – Army https://businessday.ng/ng-election/article/we-have-deployed-95-percent-personnel-for-elections-army/

TheElectionNetwork Insights team is responsible for this report.

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What did President Buhari say: “Many local governments were held by the Boko Haram insurgents when we assumed office but none, presently, is physically controlled by the group.”

Fact check: Buhari is correct that no single local government is presently under Boko Haram control. However, a key city, Baga and a few other towns bordering Chad in the north-east were seized by the terrorist sect in the latest round of attack which took place just a day before his statement at the rally. Boko Haram overpowered the multinational joint taskforce base located in Baga and claimed control of the territory, hoisting their flag.

The post Fact checking President Buhari’s claim on Boko Haram at APC campaign flag-off rally appeared first on Nigerian 2019 General Elections.

Tell me about the recent SMB Projections about the 2019 general elections and security concerns in Nigeria and why it matters to the Nigerian people.

 Every year, SBM’s research team reviews the event that shaped the outgoing year and based on current events, trends, postures and comments by key actors, prepare projections for the incoming year. The purpose of this report is not to engage in scaremongering but to highlight ongoing events so that people can be prepared for possible eventualities.

In your last report, you said various pockets of violence will be faced in Nigeria with renewed vigour as the elections approach. Can you narrow down on a specific flashpoint?

Potential flashpoints in 2019 will include Rivers state where the ongoing battle for supremacy between Governor Nyesom Wike and former Governor Rotimi Amaechi will continue to breed violence. Also, the contests in Kwara, Ekiti and Osun states where the APC and the PDP are locked in deadly contests will breed violence in the elections.

Do you think the current government is committed, backed with the Political will to take the findings of SBM seriously and start addressing the concerns raised?

A lot of these concerns are not new and are reoccurring features of our nation’s political system. Without a conscious effort by the political class to make changes that might whittle away at their current advantages, we are unlikely to see legitimate efforts to address them.

With the escalating crisis across the Northeast, should Nigeria worry that Boko Haram will again start taking control of communities? Is the resurgence anyway linked to the elections? If yes, why?

With their last experience in 2014-2015, Boko Haram will only take communities if their think they can hold it from expected military counter attacks. We believe that with the upcoming elections and the need to provide greater security all over the country, the security agencies will be further stretched, limiting their ability to respond to their actions.

You touched on electoral violence. Whose role is it and what could be done to ensure peaceful elections in 2019?

The political elite can do more to tone down their language, speak out against violence both in public and private, and pursue legitimate recourse in airing their grievances. Incumbents have a greater role in ensuring peace in the electoral process. They must show that they do not use their positions to give themselves an unfair advantage over their opposition. They must also ensure that they don’t interfere with the independence of INEC.

A peace accord was recently signed by the presidential candidates with the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate missing at the public event. What does this action signal to you?

The peace accord is a good concept to remind the politicians to play nice. However, like we saw in the 2015 elections, what politicians say in public doesn’t always match what they do. The PDP has been through 5 years without access to the spoils of power at the federal level and majority of the states. With the difficulties that it has faced since 2015, there is desperation within the party to regain power by the current cycle.

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