In this interview with TheElection Network, the Lead Partner at research firm, SBM Intelligence, Cheta Nwanze is sounding warning bells ahead of the 2019 elections in Nigeria. The latest report from Mr. Nwaze’s firm predicts violence and escalation of conflicts across the country, citing the major flashpoints. Mr. Nwanze spoke to Mercy Abang about the risk factors including violent political rhetoric among others.
Tell me about the recent SMB Projections about the 2019 general elections and security concerns in Nigeria and why it matters to the Nigerian people.
Every year, SBM’s research team reviews the event that shaped the outgoing year and based on current events, trends, postures and comments by key actors, prepare projections for the incoming year. The purpose of this report is not to engage in scaremongering but to highlight ongoing events so that people can be prepared for possible eventualities.
In your last report, you said various pockets of violence will be faced in Nigeria with renewed vigour as the elections approach. Can you narrow down on a specific flashpoint?
Potential flashpoints in 2019 will include Rivers state where the ongoing battle for supremacy between Governor Nyesom Wike and former Governor Rotimi Amaechi will continue to breed violence. Also, the contests in Kwara, Ekiti and Osun states where the APC and the PDP are locked in deadly contests will breed violence in the elections.
Do you think the current government is committed, backed with the Political will to take the findings of SBM seriously and start addressing the concerns raised?
A lot of these concerns are not new and are reoccurring features of our nation’s political system. Without a conscious effort by the political class to make changes that might whittle away at their current advantages, we are unlikely to see legitimate efforts to address them.
With the escalating crisis across the Northeast, should Nigeria worry that Boko Haram will again start taking control of communities? Is the resurgence anyway linked to the elections? If yes, why?
With their last experience in 2014-2015, Boko Haram will only take communities if their think they can hold it from expected military counter attacks. We believe that with the upcoming elections and the need to provide greater security all over the country, the security agencies will be further stretched, limiting their ability to respond to their actions.
You touched on electoral violence. Whose role is it and what could be done to ensure peaceful elections in 2019?
The political elite can do more to tone down their language, speak out against violence both in public and private, and pursue legitimate recourse in airing their grievances. Incumbents have a greater role in ensuring peace in the electoral process. They must show that they do not use their positions to give themselves an unfair advantage over their opposition. They must also ensure that they don’t interfere with the independence of INEC.
A peace accord was recently signed by the presidential candidates with the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate missing at the public event. What does this action signal to you?
The peace accord is a good concept to remind the politicians to play nice. However, like we saw in the 2015 elections, what politicians say in public doesn’t always match what they do. The PDP has been through 5 years without access to the spoils of power at the federal level and majority of the states. With the difficulties that it has faced since 2015, there is desperation within the party to regain power by the current cycle.
