We have tried to process the report into useful charts to help you process this information better.

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Adamawa, a mixed religious state in Nigeria’s Muslim North was also rocked by the devastating carnage. Adamawa state has its own rich history of political violence and has been listed by the International Crisis Group as one of the six riskiest states ahead of the general elections.

However, Yola Connect, a youth group, named after the state capital are pushing to change this narrative. The group mostly comprising students are moving from house-to-house evangelizing their communities on the need to embrace peace. The 300-person walk had the youths who were supporters of various candidates and parties suing for peace, integrity and issues based campaigns.

Among factors that could trigger conflict in the state, according to the ICG include, “hate speeches, the spread of fake news and abuse of electoral laws.” These factors form the basis of the group’s advocacy.

“We want people to remember that after elections there is life to live, let us not compromise relationships because of politics or for a candidate who won’t even acknowledge your sacrifice,” says Abdulrahman Bappulo, 27. “I have one vote, and the candidates have one vote there’s no need to fight.”

The crusade also moved against vote trading, which has become a dominant issue around the elections.

“We told them that when politicians pay for their votes they also have to recover those funds after elections at the detriment of providing basic amenities in their communities,” says Inuwa Isa Meeraj, 24, a founding member of Yola Connect. “Part of the message we passed was to open their minds to see how the youths are important in the growth of every society.”

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As seen from your commentary on both social media and mainstream media, you seem to be quite concerned about the fragility of the Nigerian state. How important do you think the 2019 General Election is for the country in terms of stability? 

Thanks, Mercy. First, let me commend, once again, the excellent work you do for Nigeria. I’ve said it once and it bears repeating: mine is a failed generation that now shamelessly has to latch our hopes for Nigeria to the work that exceptional citizens in your generation, such as yourself, are doing. Now to your question. It is perhaps auspicious that talking about you brings the generational question to mind. I know that it is a cliché of political discourse all over the world to label every election the most important election in a country’s history. If you look at American politicians, for instance, every election, they claim, is the “most important election of our lifetime.” However, in the case of Nigeria 2019, it is safe to say that we are not in the province of metaphors, clichés, or hyperbole. The 2019 election is truly and literally the most important of our lifetime. This is the case because it is an election of generational transitions. By 2023, much of the millennial demographic would have moved closer in age to my generation. And those of us in my generation who are still forming youth with millennials on social media will finally have to accept the actuality of our undeniable Babahood and Mamahood. So, those who are going to be elected on February 16, 2019 will preside over transitions in Nigeria’s demography with considerable social, cultural, political, and economic implications. They are going to preside over climacteric changes in the national demographic at a time of heightened invidiousness along our traditional fault lines – ethnicity, religion, and political affiliation. We are either going to elect people who are aware of these dynamics and nuances or analog ignoramuses who will make Nigeria miss out on the knowledge economy.

Do you agree with the recent predictions from the Crisis Group and other international risk analysts which are signalling that the 2019 general elections might be more violent than the previous elections? 

Well, for starters, Nigeria has become a more violent society over the course of the last four years. All the spectres of physical and symbolic violence have become even more accentuated, from terrorism to armed robbery, kidnappings, and political brigandage. Symbolic and physical violence have become the currency of the politics of everyday life in Nigeria. The public commentator, Ayo Sogunro, captures it all with his increasingly popular maxim, “Nigeria will kill you”. This bespeaks a relationship between citizen and state rooted in and governed by violence at a fundamental level. All the ingredients are there for 2019 to be an expremely violent election cycle. Added to these scenarios is the fact that the political class continues to misapprehend the extent of the discontent in the land. Apart from a generalized discontent occasioned by President Buhari’s incurable provincialism and clannishness, the unaddressed rumbles of Biafra, south-south resource exploitation resentment, middlebelt disaffection, and the rumbles in a fragmented north fed by so many issues are rolled into a security, law and order cauldron by Nigeria’s ignorant leadership. These unaddressed or wrongly-addressed issues could be exacerbated by the gnawing, killing poverty across the land and the determinantion of an increasingly desperate Buhari regime (well, they behave like a regime!) to organize an unfree and an unfair election. Just look at the pattern of desperation: President Buhari refused to sign the new electoral bill, all the structures and institutions of state are being violated and coerced into Buhari-worship, the CJN, warts and all, was desperately, messily, and illegally removed from office in a manner that lends credence to political readings of the affair. We have laid a foundation for a very violent election cycle and that is why Nigeria’s favorite meddlers, the United States and UK/EU, have thrown caution to the wind and are openly interfering in our domestic affairs to caution against violence.

What are your own top 3 concerns ahead of the 2019 General Elections? What is your assessment of INEC’s readiness for the 2019 elections and do you have confidence in its ability to conduct free and fair polls in 2019? 

Obviously, I am very worried about the possibility of violence and the attendant loss of lives. We are already losing lives in the campaign season and that is tragic. People are dying in campaign crowds because the unscrupulous politicians who weaponize poverty, loot the treasury in order to pay these rented crowds, do not even bother to guarantee 21^st-century crowd safety and control standards. Hence, our people go to campaign grounds to die because they have been mobilized with as little as N100 naira. Secondly, I am extremely worried about the fragility of our institutions. They are not growing. Since 1999, we have been dealing with increasingly weakened institutions. Now we are heading into an election in which every institutional bulwark of democracy has been weakened and appropriated into the myth-making machinery of the incumbent. Where is the separation of the EFCC from the persona of the incumbent when EFCC Chair, Ibrahim Magu, once took to wearing the President’s campaign lapel pins? Where is the separation of the Armed Forces from the mythology of the President when all the Service Chiefs just happened to accidentally stumble into a presidential campaign event? I can go on, but I guess I have already segued into your last question about INEC’s readiness and ability. I don’t know too much about the current INEC Chairman but I’ve read assessment snippets by people I trust. There seems to be a consensus that he has a lot of integrity and is credible. However – and there is always a tragic however to an optimistic assessment of anything Nigerian – he and INEC are operating in the context of an overall institutional debauchery that I have been analyzing. In the context of institutional synergies, for instance, you are only as good as your weakest link. If you, INEC, put your best foot forward, what happens when another institution, the police, has been co-opted? You are not protected. Your offices are mysteriously set ablaze. Your capacity to effectively deliver PVCs is seriously undermined and we start to hear stories of citizens being disenfranchized because they cannot collect their PVCs.

A number of flags have been raised by the opposition and a section of the civil society. What do you make of the recent arrests and criminal investigations of opposition figures like Senator Dino Melaye? 

Those concerns are genuine because the Buhari regime has a track record of hiding behind the one finger of a ridiculously-prosecuted anti-corruption war to hound the opposition and people whose voices or faces they do not like. Don’t forget that this is a regime that has shown itself capable of mass murder as we have witnessed with the case of El Zakzaky’s shiite followers. Look at how long they have defied court orders – after massacres of civilians – and have kept El Zakzaky and his wife in jail. Look at Deji Adeyanju. However, Nigeria is a very complicated body politic. The biases, weaknesses, and corruption of the incumbent very easily play into the hands of corrupt charlatans who delude themselves as “the opposition” and proceed to break the law, and just generally misbehave. Dino Melaye is one such charlatan. He is a court jester with no legitimacy and he imagines he can disregard lawful police invitations backed by warrants. We must not tolerate such misbehaviour from members of the political elite. Ayo Fayose is another charlatan. He is no opposition. He is just lucky that President Buhari’s anti-corruption war has been so biased, so tragically one-sided and nepotistic, that a Fayose who was caught on audio tape receiving his own share of the Dasuki ATM, now has grounds to scream opposition harassment whenever the wheels of justice roll in his direction. It is such a shame!

As a Nigerian in the diaspora, who would not be able to vote what are the issues that matter to you the most (assuming you had an opportunity to)?

I only one issue: education. Mercy, education is the proverbial egg before the chicken or the chicken before the egg. I have been at the forefront of advocacy for education, especially higher education, for a very long time. Maybe I have a keener sense of the Nigerian tragedy because I do a lot of capacity building work at the doctoral and postdoctoral levels for Universities in many countries across Africa. Maybe it is because I have also spent more than half of my entire adult life in Canadian, US, and European Universities so I find that I cannot sleep at night because of the predicament of Nigeria. Nigerians have no idea just how bad it is and, sometimes, I feel like I have to give up because you don’t even know where to start. All I can tell you is we need people in office who understand that we need to declare a state of emergency in the education sector. There is need for a complete overhaul of public education at all levels. Infrastructure decay and welfare of teachers and students are just a fraction of the problem. The entire value system needs emergency surgery. We have kids in primary and secondary school who would rather aspire to grow up and be like MC Oluomo than try to become Nigeria’s first Nobel Prize for Physics. Who Physics epp? If I harp too much on the importance of education, they will dismiss me and tell me to gbe body! Or they start O jewa ke eng, Pius Adesanmi edition. So, education is my only issue. It is my only issue because I don’t believe that the collapse of the education sector in Nigeria is an accident. If you are determined to run Nigeria the way Nigeria has been run by the leaders she has been cursed with since independence, the last thing you need is a well-educated citizenry with an elevated capacity for critical reasoning and engagement. To run Nigeria the way she is run, you need to manufacture sheeple on a large scale. You need to manufacture citizens who would allow you to preside over 100 days of a national University shut down and suffer zero electoral consequences. To manufacture such citizens on a massive national scale, you need to destroy education. The Nigerian political elite have been very efficient about this. The collapse of education in Nigeria is purposed and deliberate.

A number of people have said that the election is a two horse-race between the main opposition PDP and the ruling APC. You appear to be highly critical of both and have indicated some support for third-party candidates. What chances do you think they honestly have? 

People have a very short-term view of the entire third force project. If there is one lesson that those of us on the third force train could learn from the establishment despoilers of Nigeria like President Buhari and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, it is the longevity of ambition. Look at how many times Buhari ran for President and persisted. Many millennials were not born when Atiku Abubakar first set his sight on a presidential run. These men have persisted, and you’ve got to give it to them. It means that we third forcers have no excuse. Persistence and application have to become the motto of the third force movement. In my own opinion, Oby Ezekwesili, was the best among the third force prospects. Now that she is out, Kingsley Moghalu, Omoyele Sowore, Fela Durotoye, and Donald Duke are slugging it out. How fo we conjugate the strengths of all these people into a more manageable pathway for the force in 2023? What do we have to learn from the strengths and weaknesses of their individual runs? How do we identify the long-distance runners among them or are they all just going to fizzle out after February 16, 2019 and resurface in 2023 a few months to the election? So, we need to have sustained pan-Nigerian third force stakeholder consultations after the election. Nigerians, in principle, have already bought the idea of the third force. What I hear is criticism that many started too late, the lack of a united front, etc. Third forcers need to listen to the people.as we remain in the trenches for 2023.

What is your take on the quality of the campaigning so far from the parties involved in the elections? 

Needless to say, I have not been impressed by the campaigns of the Siamese twins – APC and PDP – because, alas, it is the same scenario we are used to: constipated, clichéd manifestos and promises that the candidates and party henchmen mouthing them have not read; violence; corruption; looting the treasury to fund campaign activities, being clever by half as they receive the proceeds of corruption as campaign donations. President Buhari and his wife and their acolytes have been using Presidential jets for campaign. That is impunity. APC ought to refund the treasury for every campaign trip President Buhari undertakes in that jet. So, these campaigns have been primitive, totally devoid of depth and grand organizing frameworks for Nigerian nationhood. The third party campaigns on the other hand have shown glimpses of a new dawn to come. Look at Oby Ezekwesili, she retired her campaign funds. Only one other presidential candidate, Professor Remi Sonaiya, who ran on the platform of KOWA Party in 2015, has retired campaign funds. Look at Omoyele Sowore and the structures he has built at home and in the Diaspora in such a short time. Third party candidates have shown that it is possible to run a campaign

If you were appointed INEC Chairman (as a Professor you fit the mould of the potential candidates) what would be your key aspect of electoral reforms and why?

Being a University Professor doesn’t necessarily mean that I’d be the right person to run INEC. I don’t want us to fetishize the professoriate. However, Nigeria does not need new electoral reforms. You know why? The Justice Mohammed Uwais report on electoral reforms has been gathering dust under the rugs at Aso Rock Villa since 2008. Basically, we are a very unserious country. There is no political will for excellence and renewal. The pathway out of our current quagmire is in that report. We have had no political will to act on that report. Nothing that would eventuate in a better body politic is ever implemented in Nigeria. Chapter 7 of the Uwais report is entitled, “Sanitizing Nigeria’s Electoral System”, Chapter 8 is entitled, “General Recommendations”. It is a 319-page report, a product of Nigerian genius and application. Mercy, everything we need to do is in there. However, I can bet that none of the current court jesters in the political arena (I am talking about the establishment politicians) has ever read that document. And we think we can headway? I think we play too much!

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“There would be no elections in Zamfara should INEC refused to field the APC candidates,“ he said insisting on a state High Court judgement that ordered INEC to accept the APC candidates list. However, a contrary ruling at a Federal High Court stands against the APC, a real cause for dilemma for INEC. The electoral commission has maintained the status quo as it stands. 

Governor Yari has faced criticisms for his dangerous remark. A former Governor, Ayodele Fayose of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party said Yari should “lick his wounds” and allow peace to prevail. According to Fayose, “it is not the fault of INEC that internal crisis in the APC in Zamfara, just like other states caused the party its rights to field candidates for National Assembly, governorship and state Assembly candidates.”

He accused the APC of plotting to “impose emergency rule on Zamfara state so that electoral process can start afresh to enable APC field candidates .” Truly Governor Yari has publicly expressed  support for the idea of emergency rule over the conflict, so the claims by Fayose cannot be verified. 

The Nigerian Bar Association in Zamfara state also denounced Yari’s remarks. “As ambassadors of rule of law, we implore, the executive Governor to be calm and humble in dealing with the issue and invoke the path of rule of law, rather than self-help,” Bello Galadi the state chairman of the lawyers union said. 

INEC has not directly responded to Governor Yari at this time. 

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Though it is unclear what he meant exactly with the words interfere or intervene, El-Rufai’s violent rhetoric is highly inciting and bears the potential to bring harm to foreigners who might be one way or the other involved in the elections in Nigeria.

El-Rufai’s comment (now viral on the internet) was made during a political programme of the National Television Authority (NTA), the Nigerian government owned news network and on the same day he signed a peace accord with his fellow gubernatorial candidates in Kaduna state. He said:

“Those that are calling for anyone to come and intervene in Nigeria…We are waiting for the person that will come and intervene. They will go back in body bags. Because nobody will come to Nigeria and tell us how to run our country. “

El-Rufai’s comments has been met with stiff criticisms. Nigerian activist and convener of the #EndSARS movement, Segun Awosanyo tweeted angrily: “A governor with a penchant for paying murderers for a job well done, who buried unarmed protesters in unmarked graves & justified their killing under his watch, was caught on National television threatening to kill foreign observers & send them back in body bags.”

“Who’s he threatening – observers? Diplomats? Journalists?” Ruth Maclean, a journalist with The Guardian (UK) queried in a tweet.

Kaduna state is one of the six high risk states listed on the International Crisis Group’s report which predicted that Nigeria would experience a more violent general election in 2019 compared to the previous one held in 2015.

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Delta state: Violence resulting in the death of three people was reported in the Effurun area of Warri, a city in Delta state as thugs loyal to the main rival political parties – the People’s Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress, clashed. 

Oyo State: In Oyo State, two people were killed during a campaign rally of the APC gubernatorial candidate in the state, Chief Adebayo Adelabu. The two dead persons were members and supporters of the APC. They lost their lives in a clash between the party supporters and thugs belonging to the rival PDP.

Kogi State: Two people were also killed in Kogi State during a PDP House of Representatives candidate’s political rally in Itama community situated in the Dekina constituency of the state. The clashes involved both the PDP and the APC supporters who allegedly invaded the rally with weapons in a bid to disrupt it. 

The International Crisis Group had, in a report, indicated that the 2019 elections could potentially be more fatal than the previous 2015 election and gave six high risks states to watch. Curiously, none of the states aforementioned in this article were listed in the Crisis group report.

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In 2019, with parts of the country in turmoil, violence could take more lives and jeopardise the country’s stability.

The report outlined a three pronged threat to the peaceful conduct of the elections to include the following: One – lack of institutional readiness on the part of INEC, the electoral management agency; Two – perception of bias of security agencies by opposition politicians and Three – heightened insecurity including the Boko Haram threat, banditry and ethnic tensions which are being stoked by politicians to fire their bases. The listed the six riskiest states to watch and the key issues around them. Breakdown as follows:

Rivers

• State revenue profile
• Bitter rivalry between incumbent Governor Nyesom Wike and his predecessor Rotimi Amaechi
• Recent History of violence:
• State security outfit with unknown motives and availability of armed militia

Akwa Ibom

• State revenue profile
• Struggle for political control between Governor Udom Emmanuel and his predecessor Godswill Akpabio
• 
  

Kaduna

• Very volatile state which accounted for more than half of the deaths from the 2011 post election violence which took place across 12 states
• Long history of ethnic tensions that has escalated with over 100 deaths in 2018
• Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s selection of a fellow muslim candidate away from traditional religious ticket mix
• Potential clashes by supporters of opposing camps

Kano

• Violent clashes between the devout supporters of the two competing power blocs – the incumbent Governor Ganduje’s Gandujiyya and his predecessor Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya.
  

Plateau

• Breakdown of internal security in the state with attacks responsible for the death of 1,800 people and displacement of more than 50,000 across 6 local governments of the state.
• Ethnic clashes between indigenes and ‘Fulani’ settlers and political rhetoric which has seen the incumbent Governor Lalong being framed as a Fulani sympathiser while the main opponent a current PDP senator and retired General, Jeremiah Useni is rallying the indigenes.

Adamawa

• Political turf war between the wife of the incumbent President, Aisha Buhari and his main challenger, Atiku Abubakar wife over who is in charge of their home state might lead to heightened desperation on both sides.
• Escalation of herder-farmer conflict over the past one year has led to hundreds of killings
• Alleged state support for local youth gangs known as the ‘Shila Boys’

Read the full ICG report here

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Tell me about the recent SMB Projections about the 2019 general elections and security concerns in Nigeria and why it matters to the Nigerian people.

 Every year, SBM’s research team reviews the event that shaped the outgoing year and based on current events, trends, postures and comments by key actors, prepare projections for the incoming year. The purpose of this report is not to engage in scaremongering but to highlight ongoing events so that people can be prepared for possible eventualities.

In your last report, you said various pockets of violence will be faced in Nigeria with renewed vigour as the elections approach. Can you narrow down on a specific flashpoint?

Potential flashpoints in 2019 will include Rivers state where the ongoing battle for supremacy between Governor Nyesom Wike and former Governor Rotimi Amaechi will continue to breed violence. Also, the contests in Kwara, Ekiti and Osun states where the APC and the PDP are locked in deadly contests will breed violence in the elections.

Do you think the current government is committed, backed with the Political will to take the findings of SBM seriously and start addressing the concerns raised?

A lot of these concerns are not new and are reoccurring features of our nation’s political system. Without a conscious effort by the political class to make changes that might whittle away at their current advantages, we are unlikely to see legitimate efforts to address them.

With the escalating crisis across the Northeast, should Nigeria worry that Boko Haram will again start taking control of communities? Is the resurgence anyway linked to the elections? If yes, why?

With their last experience in 2014-2015, Boko Haram will only take communities if their think they can hold it from expected military counter attacks. We believe that with the upcoming elections and the need to provide greater security all over the country, the security agencies will be further stretched, limiting their ability to respond to their actions.

You touched on electoral violence. Whose role is it and what could be done to ensure peaceful elections in 2019?

The political elite can do more to tone down their language, speak out against violence both in public and private, and pursue legitimate recourse in airing their grievances. Incumbents have a greater role in ensuring peace in the electoral process. They must show that they do not use their positions to give themselves an unfair advantage over their opposition. They must also ensure that they don’t interfere with the independence of INEC.

A peace accord was recently signed by the presidential candidates with the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate missing at the public event. What does this action signal to you?

The peace accord is a good concept to remind the politicians to play nice. However, like we saw in the 2015 elections, what politicians say in public doesn’t always match what they do. The PDP has been through 5 years without access to the spoils of power at the federal level and majority of the states. With the difficulties that it has faced since 2015, there is desperation within the party to regain power by the current cycle.

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Several reports are predicting multiple threats to the election including an escalation of the ongoing conflicts in various regions as a result of the polls, including a recent one by research firm, SBM Intelligence. Farmer-herder conflicts which have plagued the nation for more than a couple of years now is likely to be exacerbated during the election period. On the other hand, Boko Haram which continues to be active in the northeast will also likely take advantage of the diverted attention of Nigerians and security forces. The ethno-religious nature of the farmer-herder crisis which has deepened divisions between Christians and Muslims may have an implication on not just voting patterns, but also on the outcome of the general elections.

Among other threats, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI), indicated in a joint report that Nigeria’s insecurity crises coupled with the perception of partisanship on the part of security forces could threaten voter participation and overall confidence in the outcome of the 2019 general elections. She feared that the outcome of the elections could still be undermined.

“Nigeria’s persistent insecurity, perceptions about the lack of neutrality on the part of security forces could undermine participation in the election and confidence in the outcome despite assurances to the contrary.”

According to her, irresponsible political rhetoric could threaten and consequently weaken public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral institutions and a potential to incite violence. She said that issues like vote-buying, illegal voting, and efforts to compromise the secrecy of the vote during elections could likely result in the rejection of election results or worse, post-election violence.

However, it is not entirely a bleak forecast. The report shows that Nigerians have expressed a strong commitment to democracy as well as a commitment to continued efforts in order to improve the country’s electoral process. If the 2019 general elections turn out to be credible and peaceful, it would positively reinforce Nigeria’s democratic institutions and would make Nigeria an example for other countries on the continent.

However, there is a tendency to erode trust in democratic institutions and hamper democratic progress if the polls are not sufficiently transparent, accountable, or inclusive by Nigerians.

The signing of the Peace Accord, is a symbolic move but politicians have to go beyond making public gestures but actually respect the outcome of the elections and address their electoral disputes in courts. This is the way to go if Nigeria must avoid violence after the election results are counted and released to the public.

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