While the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) accused each other of planning to rig or militarize the election, the supplementary polls were still held.

While Adamawa’s supplementary governorship polls have been suspended indefinitely, based on a court order, INEC has gone on to declare winners in the other states.

Here’s a quick run down of the results:

Benue State

In the food basket of the nation, the incumbent governor and PDP candidate, Samuel Ortom, was re-elected for a second term.

According to the state’s Returning Officer, Professor Maimako Sebastian, who announced the result on Sunday, Ortom pulled in 434, 473 votes against his main rival and APC candidate, Emmanuel Jime’s 345,155 votes. The margin between both candidates was recorded as 89,318 votes

The state’s original election on March 9 was tagged inconclusive as a result of the gap between the cancelled votes, 121,019 and the winning margin of only 81,554 votes.

Kano State

In what has been dubbed the most controversial state in this year’s election, Kano State’s polls have been marred by violence and electoral malpractice. At the end of collation for the state’s governorship polls, the APC candidate and current governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, won his second term bid with 1,033,695 votes as opposed to Abba Yusuf’s 1,024,713 votes.

A close call for both parties with only 9,000 votes between them.

The PDP has, however, issued a statement rejecting the outcome of the election.

Plateau State

In Plateau State, another second term bid was secured as the APC candidate and incumbent governor, Solomon Lalong, won the vote.

In an announcement by the state’s Returning Officer, Professor Richard Kimbir, Lalong won with 595,582 votes, defeating PDP’s Jeremiah Useni, who polled 546,813 votes.

During the March 9 elections, the governor received 583,255 votes, while Useni polled 538,326 votes.

However, the electoral umpire was forced to declare the elections inconclusive based on the 44,929 margin of lead and the total number of cancelled votes of 49,377.

Sokoto State

Recording the slimmest margin of all the candidates, the PDP flag bearer and Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, secured his re-election bid with 512, 002 votes, while APC’s Ahmed Aliyu came in second place with a margin of 341 votes, polling 511,661.

During the collation of results from the March 9 polls, Tambuwal was still in the lead with 489,558 votes, while Ahmed Aliyu was a close second with 486,145 votes, before the results were declared inconclusive.

Bauchi State

While the state might have suffered a setback as the absence of its Returning Officer resulted in a late collation process, PDP candidate, Bala Mohammed, eventually won the governorship race with 6,376 votes.

He won the elections over the APC candidate and incumbent governor, Muhammed Abubakar, who polled 5,117 votes at the end of the supplementary polls.

The commission is yet to give full details on its plan for Rivers and Adamawa states.  

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Adamawa, a mixed religious state in Nigeria’s Muslim North was also rocked by the devastating carnage. Adamawa state has its own rich history of political violence and has been listed by the International Crisis Group as one of the six riskiest states ahead of the general elections.

However, Yola Connect, a youth group, named after the state capital are pushing to change this narrative. The group mostly comprising students are moving from house-to-house evangelizing their communities on the need to embrace peace. The 300-person walk had the youths who were supporters of various candidates and parties suing for peace, integrity and issues based campaigns.

Among factors that could trigger conflict in the state, according to the ICG include, “hate speeches, the spread of fake news and abuse of electoral laws.” These factors form the basis of the group’s advocacy.

“We want people to remember that after elections there is life to live, let us not compromise relationships because of politics or for a candidate who won’t even acknowledge your sacrifice,” says Abdulrahman Bappulo, 27. “I have one vote, and the candidates have one vote there’s no need to fight.”

The crusade also moved against vote trading, which has become a dominant issue around the elections.

“We told them that when politicians pay for their votes they also have to recover those funds after elections at the detriment of providing basic amenities in their communities,” says Inuwa Isa Meeraj, 24, a founding member of Yola Connect. “Part of the message we passed was to open their minds to see how the youths are important in the growth of every society.”

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Saturday, February 9, 2019, ABUJA – Nigeria holds its general elections in February and March 2019. Voters will get a chance to elect their leaders including the president, state governors and federal and state lawmakers. However, a number of multi-sectoral factors would impact the ability of citizens to vote as well as the electoral agency INEC to fulfil its mandate in certain areas of the country especially the Northeast.

Since 2009, Nigeria has been running a counter-insurgency campaign in its northeast. The conflict peaked between the last quarter of 2014 and early 2015 (an electioneering campaign season) as the insurgents overran towns and military bases across Borno, Adamawa and Yobe States.  The result of this is a humanitarian crisis with millions of displaced persons, thousands killed and critical infrastructure destroyed.

As a result of this, the Nigerian government postponed the national election in 2015 to allow the military to conduct an offensive to recapture towns and provide an environment of relative calm.  Despite successes claimed by the Nigerian military and the Multinational Joint task force (MNJTF) – a regional military task force made of personnel from Nigeria, Niger, Benin and Cameroon – Boko Haram attempted to disrupt elections in some places by attacking voting centers.

New threats

In 2019, the complexity around the insurgency has increased since the emergence of a splinter group known as the Islamic State in West Africa, and a resurgence of attacks on garrison towns and military bases after a period of relative calm. 

The United States African Command (AFRICOM) commander General Waldhauser informed the US Senate Armed Services Committee, “West African ISIS now has 3,000 to 4,000 members and has captured large sections of Nigerian territory”.

Boko Haram militants have displaced over 320,000 persons in four months, according to the United Nations refugee agency(UNHCR) January report. [1] These attacks by Boko Haram and ISWA militants occurred mostly in Lake Chad Communities.  

In Yobe, the attacks are centered in areas close to Borno and the Niger (a neighbouring country) border. Adamawa has suffered recent Boko Haram attacks in Michika and Madagali [2]. These wave of attacks and the resulting displacement of persons would affect overall participation in the federal and local elections. 

Impact on conduct of the elections

INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner in Borno state, Muhammed Ibrahim, in an address to civil society organisations, political parties and journalists, revealed the electoral body’s decision to allow Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) numbering 409,813 to vote in camps.  

IDPs from eight local government areas;Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Dikwa, Gamboru-Ngala, Kukawa and Mobbar and Kalabalge will  cast their votes in camps in and outside Maiduguri. [3]  However, the inability of thousands of refugees who fled to neighbouring Chad and Cameroon after recent violence in the Lake Chad area to vote and the safety of IDP camps are major concerns to watch.

In Yobe, INEC has identified 24 voting areas where elections would be conducted in alternative voting centres.  This followed reports by security agencies which indicated that several voting areas in Gujba, Gulani and Gaidam local government areas of the state were unsafe for elections. [4] 

In Adamawa, INEC is expected to conduct elections in areas recently attacked by Boko Haram, including Madagali LGA, with more than 81,000 registered voters. [5]

The safety of electoral officials, voters and materials will determine INEC’s final decision on whether it would conduct elections in these high risk areas. Already, the Nigerian Army would be deploying ninety-five per cent of its troops for security duties during the forthcoming general elections with 40 per cent in the North East. [6]

Endnotes:

• [1] Boko Haram displaced over 320, 000 persons in four months, says UNHCR http://thenationonlineng.net/boko-haram-displaced-320-000-persons-four-months-says-unhcr/
• [2] BokoHaram On Rampage In Michika, Madagali, Adamawa Statehttps://www.sunnewsonline.com/breaking-boko-haram-on-rampage-in-michika-madagali-adamawa-state/
• [3] 410,000 IDPs to vote in Borno camps – INEC https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/310777-410000-idps-to-vote-in-borno-camps-inec.html
• [4] INEC provides alternative voting center https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/boko-haram-inec-to-provides-alternative-voting-centres-in-yobe.html
• [5] INEC vows to conduct elections in Madagali http://thenationonlineng.net/adamawa-attack-inec-vows-to-conduct-elections-in-madagali/
• [6]  95 Percent Of Troops To Be Deployed For Election Duties – Army https://businessday.ng/ng-election/article/we-have-deployed-95-percent-personnel-for-elections-army/

TheElectionNetwork Insights team is responsible for this report.

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In 2019, with parts of the country in turmoil, violence could take more lives and jeopardise the country’s stability.

The report outlined a three pronged threat to the peaceful conduct of the elections to include the following: One – lack of institutional readiness on the part of INEC, the electoral management agency; Two – perception of bias of security agencies by opposition politicians and Three – heightened insecurity including the Boko Haram threat, banditry and ethnic tensions which are being stoked by politicians to fire their bases. The listed the six riskiest states to watch and the key issues around them. Breakdown as follows:

Rivers

• State revenue profile
• Bitter rivalry between incumbent Governor Nyesom Wike and his predecessor Rotimi Amaechi
• Recent History of violence:
• State security outfit with unknown motives and availability of armed militia

Akwa Ibom

• State revenue profile
• Struggle for political control between Governor Udom Emmanuel and his predecessor Godswill Akpabio
• 
  

Kaduna

• Very volatile state which accounted for more than half of the deaths from the 2011 post election violence which took place across 12 states
• Long history of ethnic tensions that has escalated with over 100 deaths in 2018
• Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s selection of a fellow muslim candidate away from traditional religious ticket mix
• Potential clashes by supporters of opposing camps

Kano

• Violent clashes between the devout supporters of the two competing power blocs – the incumbent Governor Ganduje’s Gandujiyya and his predecessor Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya.
  

Plateau

• Breakdown of internal security in the state with attacks responsible for the death of 1,800 people and displacement of more than 50,000 across 6 local governments of the state.
• Ethnic clashes between indigenes and ‘Fulani’ settlers and political rhetoric which has seen the incumbent Governor Lalong being framed as a Fulani sympathiser while the main opponent a current PDP senator and retired General, Jeremiah Useni is rallying the indigenes.

Adamawa

• Political turf war between the wife of the incumbent President, Aisha Buhari and his main challenger, Atiku Abubakar wife over who is in charge of their home state might lead to heightened desperation on both sides.
• Escalation of herder-farmer conflict over the past one year has led to hundreds of killings
• Alleged state support for local youth gangs known as the ‘Shila Boys’

Read the full ICG report here

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